Across 1,092 sessions 2022-2026, NVDA decoupled: on >+10bp 10Y yield days, QQQ -0.25% and SMH -0.21% but NVDA +0.30%. The textbook 'yields up = tech down' rule is wrong about the leader.

Korean traders read Samsung + SK Hynix close at 15:30 KST, seven hours before SMH opens. That's a real signal — but for gap SIZE, not direction. KOSPI gap fill rate is ~66% across all close buckets; the 22:30 KST execution routine is what converts the time-zone to P&L.

Basket Impact Ratio — single-name divergence from sector ETF predicts next-day return non-linearly. NVDA/AMD/AVGO vs SMH and META/AAPL vs XLK show mild lead (+1 to +3%) prints +0.15% next-day median; strong lead (>+3%) only +0.03% — exhausted.