The 'compression precedes breakout' pattern doesn't survive 8,688 sessions of data. Tightest days had a 6% breakout rate; widest had 26%. Momentum begets momentum. How our desk actually uses compression — and what we trade instead.

Mid-size morning drives in US equities reverse during lunch 61–67% of the time; strong drives consolidate instead. The asymmetry is driven by dealer gamma, not coincidence — and the right play depends on which side you're on.