Across 3,463 gap-up sessions on QQQ/NVDA/TSLA/AMD/SMCI/COIN, the intraday fade is roughly 50% regardless of gap size. What collapses with gap size is full-fill rate: 44% on small gaps, only 8% on gaps above 6%.

A 4-year, 6,552-event study of overnight gaps in SPY, QQQ, IWM, NVDA, TSLA and AAPL. Large gaps fade, mid-size gaps are the trade-able bucket, and the regime declares itself in the first 30 minutes.